SpaceX Basket Dashboard

Roadmap Clock

Pre-IPO WatchCurrent
Now:
1. Build Sympathy position
2. Map Funding Source Basket
2W Before IPO:
1. Hold Sympathy longs
2. Short Funding Source Basket
IPO Setup
IPO Day:
1. Trim extreme sympathy moves
2. Long SPCX after opening volatility settles
Post-IPO Rotation
1-3D After IPO:
1. Close Sympathy longs
2. Map SPCX inclusion math
Options Open:
1. Replace some SPCX exposure with call spreads
Inclusion Setup
Likely / Announced:
1. Hold SPCX positions
2. Short NDX Displacement Basket
Rebalance
Window:
1. Close SPCX into passive bid
2. Cover Funding / NDX shorts
Post-Inclusion Fade
1-4D After:
1. SPCX shorts or puts
2. Short Satellite Rerating once underperforming
Afterward:
1. Monitor lock-ups and earnings
2. Close Satellite short on relative exhaustion

Trade Readiness

Trade	Status	Bias	Activator	Signal
Sympathy Long	Active, extended	Long pullbacks	Wait for z-score below +1.5	Active signal, but already extended
Funding Short	Watch	Short only if confirmed	Pressure visible, but official IPO gate is not active	Watchable source-of-funds pressure, not proven
NDX Displacement	Inactive	Wait	SPCX inclusion likely/announced and deletion candidate visible	No forced-flow signal yet
Satellite Short	Inactive	Wait for fade	Requires post-IPO relative weakness	Rerating short is not on yet

Core = yellow roadmap tickers. Expanded = Core + gray roadmap tickers. Weights are trade-oriented, volatility/liquidity-adjusted, and should be refreshed before execution. Charts: Jan 14, 2026 to May 22, 2026. Each chart is rebased to 100 at its start date. Light gray dotted lines mark month boundaries; black dotted lines mark confirmed event dates.

Sympathy / Space Sentiment

Long basket | Benchmark: XAR | Conviction x liquidity x inverse 63d volatility, capped for concentration.

Core vs Expanded Index

Core Expanded

73.494.0114.5135.0155.6

Core 5d+12.1%

Core 20d+42.0%

Rel 5d+7.8%

Rel 20d+34.3%

Rel z20+1.75

Vol 20d97.7%

Vol 63d90.9%

Above 20d100%

Wtd ADV$1.4B

Ticker	Core Weight	Expanded Weight	63d Vol	20d $Vol
RKLB	24.4%	18.3%	109.4%	$3.0B
ASTS	23.4%	17.5%	105.1%	$1.7B
LUNR	17.9%	13.4%	119.2%	$380M
RDW	17.0%	12.7%	113.1%	$483M
PL	17.3%	13.0%	104.8%	$353M
IRDM		13.3%	66.2%	$84M
GSAT		11.6%	62.0%	$100M

Trade Intent

Own before the attention spike; trim as the IPO becomes obvious. This is the cleanest retail/thematic sentiment expression, not a fundamentals call.

Entry

Buy pullbacks while 5d relative trend is positive and breadth is >60%
Avoid fresh adds if relative z-score is above +1.5

Exit

Trim/close into IPO attention spike or relative z-score above +2.0
Exit on two-day relative reversal after an extreme move

Funding Source

Short basket | Benchmark: QQQ | Source-of-funds conviction x liquidity x inverse 63d volatility, capped for concentration.

Core vs Expanded Index

Core Expanded

81.889.797.6105.5113.4

Core 5d-1.7%

Core 20d+2.9%

Rel 5d-2.8%

Rel 20d-4.8%

Rel z20-1.65

Vol 20d27.0%

Vol 63d31.1%

Above 20d50%

Wtd ADV$19.6B

Ticker	Core Weight	Expanded Weight	63d Vol	20d $Vol
TSLA	29.6%	19.8%	40.7%	$22.5B
NVDA	28.9%	19.4%	38.3%	$35.0B
AVGO	21.9%	14.7%	41.8%	$7.8B
PLTR	19.6%	13.1%	49.2%	$5.6B
AMZN		13.7%	28.3%	$11.7B
META		9.9%	39.1%	$10.0B
GOOGL		9.4%	34.2%	$11.4B

Trade Intent

Potential source-of-funds pressure into a giant IPO allocation. Only press if mega-cap growth underperforms broadly into bookbuilding.

Entry

Short only if basket underperforms QQQ during bookbuilding
Prefer entry when downside breadth is broad, not one-name driven

Exit

Cover by pricing / IPO day unless pressure is still accelerating
Cover immediately if basket regains relative strength vs QQQ

NDX Displacement

Short basket | Benchmark: QQQ | Flow proxy x inverse sqrt(63d volatility), capped; deletion candidate excluded until announced.

Core vs Expanded Index

Core Expanded

84.092.4100.8109.2117.5

Core 5d-1.2%

Core 20d+6.5%

Rel 5d-2.4%

Rel 20d-1.5%

Rel z20-2.04

Vol 20d15.1%

Vol 63d21.1%

Above 20d60%

Wtd ADV$18.2B

Ticker	Core Weight	Expanded Weight	63d Vol	20d $Vol
NVDA	23.4%	19.5%	38.3%	$35.0B
AAPL	25.9%	21.6%	22.2%	$14.0B
MSFT	20.6%	17.2%	26.7%	$14.2B
AMZN	16.6%	13.8%	28.3%	$11.7B
GOOGL	13.5%	11.3%	34.2%	$11.4B
AVGO		9.0%	41.8%	$7.8B
TSLA		7.6%	40.7%	$22.5B

Deletion Candidate (TBA): add once announced. Default template: 30% deletion candidate / 70% pro-rata existing displacement basket.

Trade Intent

Rebalance-flow short once inclusion timing is firm. The deletion candidate can become the highest-impact leg once announced.

Entry

Activate after NDX inclusion becomes likely or is formally announced
Increase focus on the announced deletion candidate once known

Exit

Cover into the rebalance close / passive execution window
Do not hold the forced-flow short after the rebalance without a fresh thesis

Satellite / Starlink Rerating

Short basket | Benchmark: XAR | Competitive-risk conviction x liquidity x inverse 63d volatility, capped for concentration.

Core vs Expanded Index

Core Expanded

80.396.6113.0129.4145.8

Core 5d+0.9%

Core 20d+14.6%

Rel 5d-3.0%

Rel 20d+8.3%

Rel z20+0.40

Vol 20d51.3%

Vol 63d52.6%

Above 20d67%

Wtd ADV$316M

Ticker	Core Weight	Expanded Weight	63d Vol	20d $Vol
VSAT	35.0%	26.1%	73.6%	$125M
SATS	35.0%	29.7%	56.3%	$704M
IRDM	30.0%	21.4%	66.2%	$84M
GSAT		14.8%	62.0%	$100M
ASTS		7.9%	105.1%	$1.7B

Trade Intent

Post-IPO comparative rerating short. Wait for sympathy to fade and for public satellite names to underperform SPCX/XAR.

Entry

Enter after IPO sympathy fades and basket underperforms XAR/SPCX
Prefer short entries with weak breadth and negative 5d relative performance

Exit

Close after 10-15% relative underperformance vs SPCX/XAR
Close on two consecutive relative up days or name-specific positive catalysts

Indicator Reference

Indicator	Definition	Why / What To Look For
5d	Core basket price index return over the last five trading sessions	Fast timing check. Look for short-term acceleration, reversal after a spike, or confirmation that a pullback is being bought.
20d	Core basket price index return over the last twenty trading sessions	Primary trend check. Strong 20d returns show the theme is active; very large moves raise chase and mean-reversion risk.
Rel 5d	Core basket return versus its benchmark over the last five trading sessions	Best near-term signal for entry/exit timing. Positive relative 5d supports longs; negative relative 5d supports shorts or trims.
Rel 20d	Core basket return versus its benchmark over the last twenty trading sessions	Filters beta/risk-on noise. Persistent positive relative performance suggests event-specific demand; persistent weakness suggests the trade is fading.
Rel z20	Current relative index level versus its trailing 20-session mean, in standard deviations	Crowding/extension gauge. Above +1.5 argues for patience or trims; below -1.5 can flag washout or active short pressure.
Vol 20d	Annualized realized volatility of the Core basket over the last twenty sessions	Sizing and leverage input. Rising 20d vol means reduce gross or use defined-risk options; falling vol can support larger cash exposure.
Vol 63d	Annualized realized volatility of the Core basket over the last sixty-three sessions	Structural risk estimate. Used to compare baskets and keep higher-vol themes from dominating position risk.
Above 20d	Share of Core tickers trading above their own 20-session moving average	Breadth check. High breadth confirms a basket-wide move; weak breadth warns the signal is narrow or already rolling over.
Wtd ADV	Core basket weighted average 20-session dollar volume	Execution capacity check. Higher ADV supports easier scaling; low ADV means use smaller sizing and avoid crowded exits.
63d Vol	Ticker-level annualized realized volatility used in weight construction	Explains risk-adjusted weights. Higher-vol names need smaller weights unless conviction or liquidity justifies the risk.
20d $Vol	Ticker-level average dollar volume over the last twenty sessions	Ticker-level liquidity screen. Watch for names where trade size could become meaningful versus normal volume.

Phase 2 Data Items

Options IV/skew, borrow cost, short interest and live holdings/deletion candidate feeds are not in the current Data Component equity bar expansion.
Recommended providers: ORATS, OptionMetrics, or Polygon options for IV/skew; S3 Partners/ORTEX for borrow and short interest; Nasdaq/Invesco official files for NDX/QQQ holdings and delete candidate confirmation.
Unavailable symbols in this run: None from Polygon in this run.